NHD(002946) 华鑫证券·2025-04-27 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's main revenue remains stable, with a significant improvement in profitability. Total revenue and net profit for 2024 were 10.665 billion and 538 million yuan, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 3% and an increase of 25% [5] - The low-temperature product category continues to perform well, with expectations for new products to drive further growth. Revenue from liquid milk, milk powder, and other categories for 2024 were 9.836 billion, 71 million, and 758 million yuan, respectively, with liquid milk showing a stable performance [6] - Direct sales channels are growing rapidly, particularly in the East China region, with direct sales revenue reaching 6.225 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11% [8] - The company aims to double its net profit margin over the next five years, focusing on expanding its core business and enhancing corporate value [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 10.665 billion yuan, with a net profit of 538 million yuan, reflecting a 25% increase year-on-year. The Q1 2025 figures showed a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan and a net profit of 133 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 0.4% and 48% respectively [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 28.36%, increasing by 1.5 percentage points, while the net margin was 5.15%, up by 1.2 percentage points [5] Product Performance - The low-temperature milk segment, including fresh milk and yogurt, achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth, with the "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [6] - New product launches contributed to maintaining a double-digit revenue share, with the "初心" series and "活润" brand both achieving significant growth [6][7] Sales Channels - Direct sales revenue reached 6.225 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, while online sales through platforms like Douyin and JD.com grew by 32% [8] - The company's self-developed "鲜活 go" platform has shown significant growth in user retention and repurchase rates [8] Profit Forecast - The company projects EPS of 0.78, 0.92, and 1.03 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 19, and 17 times [9]