NHD(002946) 中邮证券·2025-04-27 00:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [15] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 538 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 24.8% [3][10] - The company's gross margin and net margin for 2024 are forecasted to be 28.36% and 5.04%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [3] - The company has optimized its management expenses and reduced financial costs, contributing to a decrease in the financial expense ratio [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 251.6 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.94%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 28.08% [4] - The company's revenue from liquid milk is expected to grow against the trend, while the overall revenue decline is attributed to the divestment of the yogurt business and contraction in trade operations [4][5] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 262.5 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 48.46% year-on-year [7] Product and Market Insights - The high-end "24-hour" series is expected to continue to grow, with revenue increasing by over 15% year-on-year [5] - The company has expanded its delivery coverage to 141 cities and regions, and the number of image stores has surpassed 500 [5] - The direct sales model has seen an increase in revenue, with direct sales accounting for 62.83% of total sales, up by 6.02 percentage points [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.197 billion yuan, 11.963 billion yuan, and 13.005 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 685 million yuan, 838 million yuan, and 1.001 billion yuan [10][12] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow from 0.80 yuan in 2025 to 1.16 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 22 to 15 [10][12]