DEPPON(603056) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-25 12:19Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has undergone a strategic shift in operations, focusing on network integration progress. The recent performance shows a revenue increase of 11.3% year-on-year for 2024, with a net profit growth of 15.4%. However, the first quarter of 2025 saw a net loss of 0.68 billion yuan due to seasonal impacts and business expansion [6][5] - The company's express delivery business revenue reached 36.46 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 12.95% increase, driven by product upgrades and improved customer experience. Key performance indicators such as complaint rates and delivery success rates have shown significant improvement [6][5] - The financial forecasts have been adjusted downwards for 2025-2026, with expected net profits of 9.22 billion yuan and 10.55 billion yuan respectively, while maintaining a competitive valuation compared to peers [6][5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 40.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3%. The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 10.41 billion yuan, a 12% increase [5][6] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 0.92 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.1% increase from the previous year, while the profit for 2026 is projected at 1.05 billion yuan [5][6] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 7.4% for 2025-2027, with a return on equity (ROE) forecasted at 10% for 2025 [5][6]