SANY(600031) 海通国际证券·2025-04-25 12:36Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" with a target price of RMB 22.68, compared to the current price of RMB 19.40 [1][20]. Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic engineering machinery sector is at the beginning of a cyclical improvement, with overseas markets expected to see structural enhancements. The company's strong product capabilities and global presence are anticipated to lead to valuation growth through demand resilience and global competitiveness [20][7]. - The report raises the company's EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to RMB 0.99 and RMB 1.21, respectively, and introduces a new EPS estimate of RMB 1.38 for 2027 [20][7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 78.38 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.90%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 5.98 billion, a year-over-year increase of 31.98% [3][20]. - In Q4 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 20.02 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 12.12%, and a net profit of RMB 1.11 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 141.15% [20][3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is projected at 26.43%, while the net profit margin is expected to be 7.83%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points year-over-year [20][3]. - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 14.81 billion, a significant year-over-year increase of 159.53%, marking a historical high for the company [20][19]. Expense Management - The report highlights effective expense control, with the sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios for 2024 being 6.97%, 3.82%, 0.26%, and 6.86%, respectively. The year-over-year changes for these ratios are -1.43 percentage points, +0.27 percentage points, +0.89 percentage points, and -1.06 percentage points [20][3]. - The decline in the sales expense ratio is attributed to warranty costs being included in costs, amounting to RMB 1.08 billion, which is approximately 1.4% of revenue [20][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is noted for its strong product competitiveness, maintaining leading market shares in key products such as excavators and concrete machinery. The globalization, digitalization, and low-carbon strategy is yielding positive results, with international revenue reaching RMB 48.51 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.15% [20][19]. - The report emphasizes the company's commitment to high-quality development, maintaining high levels of risk control and operational quality, while continuously improving its internationalization, intelligence, and low-carbon initiatives [20][19].