STL(002648) 天风证券·2025-04-25 14:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [9][20]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to increase by 53.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.57 billion [1]. - Ethane cracking profits remain robust, with average profits for ethane cracking, naphtha-based ethylene, and coal-based olefins at 2439, -7, and 1378 RMB/ton respectively [2]. - A new project is expected to double the company's ethylene production capacity from 2.5 million tons to 5 million tons by the end of 2025 [3]. - The average price of acrylic acid in Q1 2025 is expected to be 8062 RMB/ton, up from 6300 RMB/ton in Q1 2024, indicating potential growth in the C3 segment [4]. - The company maintains profit forecasts of 7.53 billion, 9.53 billion, and 11.61 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.24, 2.83, and 3.45 RMB per share [5]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 41.49 billion RMB in 2023 to 93.69 billion RMB in 2027, with a growth rate of 30% in 2025 [7][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly, with a growth rate of 56.42% in 2023 and 24.04% in 2025 [5][15]. - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.47 in 2023 to 5.56 in 2027, indicating improving valuation metrics [7][15]. - The company's total assets are projected to grow from 64.58 billion RMB in 2023 to 98.46 billion RMB in 2027 [13][15].