ZJJH(600160) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-26 04:15Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with total revenue of 24.46 billion yuan (YoY +18%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.96 billion yuan (YoY +108%) [8] - The significant growth in the refrigerant business, driven by rising prices, has positively impacted profitability, outweighing the negative effects from non-refrigerant segments [8] - The company is expected to benefit from an improved industry landscape in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 4.16 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.54 yuan [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: 20.66 billion yuan - 2024: 24.46 billion yuan - 2025E: 27.86 billion yuan - 2026E: 30.82 billion yuan - 2027E: 33.82 billion yuan - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow significantly: - 2023: 944 million yuan - 2024: 1.96 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.16 billion yuan - 2026E: 5.44 billion yuan - 2027E: 7.12 billion yuan - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 32.9% by 2027 [2][10] Market Data - As of April 25, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 25.15 yuan, with a market capitalization of 67.90 billion yuan [3] - The stock has a price-to-earnings ratio of 72 for 2023, decreasing to 10 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [2][10] Business Performance Highlights - In 2024, the company achieved a refrigerant sales volume of 353,000 tons (YoY +23%) and an average selling price of 26,765 yuan/ton (YoY +33%) [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.3 yuan per share, totaling 621 million yuan, which is 31.69% of the net profit for the period [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising prices of second and third-generation refrigerants due to a favorable supply-demand dynamic [8]