Xinyangfeng Agricultural(000902) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-26 07:43Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue reaching 4.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 46%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 515 million yuan, up 50% year-on-year and 154% quarter-on-quarter [7] - The recovery in single fertilizer prices and strong demand for spring fertilizers are expected to significantly boost the company's compound fertilizer sales in Q1 2025. Prices for three types of single fertilizers have shown notable recovery since February 2025 [7] - The strategic significance of compound fertilizers is highlighted, with the market share of leading companies increasing as smaller firms exit the market due to raw material price volatility. The company's compound fertilizer sales have grown from 2.6067 million tons in 2015 to 4.3571 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 5.87% [7] - The company has a rich project reserve and is advancing the high-value utilization of phosphate chemicals. Significant investments are being made in new projects, including a 9.6 billion yuan investment in a phosphate new materials circular economy industrial park [7] - The company continues to strengthen its resource reserves through acquisitions, including phosphate mines, which are expected to enhance its mining rights and production capabilities [7] - The company is positioned as a leading domestic phosphate and compound fertilizer producer, benefiting from channel, resource, and cost advantages. The report forecasts net profits for 2025-2027 at 1.753 billion, 2.016 billion, and 2.318 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.40, 1.61, and 1.85 yuan [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 17.806 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.753 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.3% [6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to be 16.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.6% [6]