Shede Spirits (600702) 国金证券·2025-04-26 08:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.58 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 350 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue structure shows that high-end and regular liquor generated 1.23 billion yuan and 210 million yuan respectively in Q1 2025, with year-on-year declines of 28.5% and 12.6% [3]. - The company is focusing on improving its operational efficiency through a flat organizational structure and targeted assessments [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 4.7%, with net profit increasing by 164% to 913 million yuan [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 2.74 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.8, 16.6, and 13.4 for the years 2025 to 2027 [5][10]. Financial Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 22.0%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points year-on-year, with a gross margin of 69.4% [3]. - The balance of contract liabilities at the end of Q1 2025 was 210 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 40 million yuan [3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has added 215 new distributors while 257 exited, resulting in a net decrease of 42 distributors, leaving a total of 2,621 at the end of Q1 2025 [3]. - The company’s strategic focus includes enhancing its e-commerce channel, which saw a revenue increase of 36.7% year-on-year, contributing approximately 14% to total revenue [3].