Workflow
梦百合(603313):Q4外销略回暖,静待盈利能力改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.46, 0.63, and 0.80 RMB respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 15, 11, and 8 times [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.45 billion RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, but a net profit loss of 150 million RMB, a significant decline of 242.0% year-on-year, primarily due to uncertainty in recovering receivables from its largest customer [2]. - The company experienced a decline in gross margin to 36.9%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to an increase in overseas OEM business revenue and changes in product mix [4]. - Domestic sales showed a steady performance with a 3.6% year-on-year increase, while overseas sales grew by 6.7% [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.32 billion RMB and a net profit of 1.56 million RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 124.7% respectively [2]. - The company recorded a total revenue of 14.8 billion RMB from domestic sales and 67.5 billion RMB from overseas sales in 2024, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 3.6% and 6.7% [3]. Operational Analysis - The company’s domestic sales channels, including direct sales, distribution, and e-commerce, saw revenue growth of 44.8%, -1.9%, and 6.0% respectively in 2024 [3]. - The overseas sales performance varied, with North America experiencing a slight decline of 1.1% while Europe showed a robust growth of 20.4% [3]. Profitability Forecast - The company’s gross margin is expected to face pressure due to increased costs and changes in product structure, with a projected recovery in profitability anticipated in the coming years [4]. - The report forecasts a significant recovery in net profit starting in 2025, with an expected growth rate of 272.87% [10].