玉马科技（300993）：短期发货节奏受影响，关注户外面料拓展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face short-term impacts due to tax increases, particularly affecting its overseas sales, which account for approximately 70% of its revenue. However, the company has advantages such as overseas warehouses that may help it capture market share during challenging periods for smaller clients [7] - The company has significant growth potential in outdoor fabric categories and expansion opportunities in regions like Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa [7] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downward, while a new revenue forecast for 2027 has been introduced, indicating a long-term positive outlook for market share growth [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 769 million, with a year-on-year growth of 16.0%. The net profit is expected to be 186 million, reflecting a 12.5% increase [9] - The gross margin for 2024 is estimated at 40.0%, with a slight decrease from the previous year [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 0.61, with a growth trajectory leading to 0.88 by 2027 [9] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company expects revenues from various product lines: shading fabrics (2.22 billion), adjustable light fabrics (1.67 billion), and sunlight fabrics (2.66 billion), with growth rates of 9.25%, 8.49%, and 31.44% respectively [3] - Domestic and international revenues are projected at 2.39 billion and 5.30 billion, with year-on-year growth of 8.55% and 19.78% respectively [3] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 40%, with a slight decline from the previous year. The net profit margin is projected at 24.1%, also showing a decrease [4] - The increase in operating expenses has contributed to a decline in net profit margins, with sales, management, and R&D expenses rising [4] Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of 2024, the company's inventory is projected to be 1.85 billion, reflecting a 6% increase year-on-year. The inventory turnover days are expected to decrease by 15 days [5][6] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 220 million, indicating a healthy cash generation capability [11]