TKGF(601233) 天风证券·2025-04-26 13:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.202 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 50.8% [1] - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 101.307 billion, an increase of 22.59% year-on-year [1] - The improvement in investment income is a significant contributor to the company's performance [1] - The company is expanding its industry reach with new projects in dyeing and short fiber production [3] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards increased concentration, with the top six companies in the direct spinning capacity accounting for approximately 80% of the market [4] - The long silk industry is entering a low growth period, with new capacity expected to be 122,000 tons in 2024 and 182,000 tons in 2025 [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved sales volumes of 9.68 million tons for POY, 2.14 million tons for FDY, and 1.12 million tons for DTY, with year-on-year increases of 23%, 46%, and 13% respectively [2] - The average selling prices for POY, FDY, and DTY decreased by 2%, 3%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - The average purchase price for PX in 2024 was 7,006 per ton, down 6% year-on-year, while MEG averaged 4,049 per ton, up 12% year-on-year [2] - The company's EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 8.499 billion, with a net profit of 1.201 billion [5] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.50 in 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.15 [5] Industry Insights - The company is making significant progress on key projects, including the Fujian Henghai project and the Anhui Youshun project, which are in critical stages of development [3] - The industry is expected to see more orderly expansion, with the current capacity expansion rate being significantly lower than that of 2020-2023 [4] - The company is well-positioned to maintain its competitive advantage and resilience in the long term despite short-term uncertainties in exports [4]