SACO(002025) 东方证券·2025-04-26 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 71.41 CNY, based on a 37x PE ratio for 2025 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 1.466 billion CNY, a decrease of 9.15% year-over-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47 million CNY, down 79.35% [1][8]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a temporary slowdown in defense demand, high inventory levels, and increased production costs due to elevated raw material prices [8]. - Despite the short-term challenges, the company expects a recovery in profitability starting from Q2 2025 as defense demand improves and revenue recognition stabilizes [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 7.264 billion CNY, 8.423 billion CNY, and 9.674 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 44.6%, 15.9%, and 14.9% respectively [3][9]. - Net Profit: Expected net profit for 2025 is 883 million CNY, with a growth rate of 154.5% compared to 2024 [3][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Forecasted EPS for 2025 is 1.93 CNY, increasing to 2.35 CNY in 2026 and 2.77 CNY in 2027 [2][3]. - Profitability Ratios: The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 38.1% to 38.2% from 2025 to 2027, while the net margin is projected to improve from 12.2% in 2025 to 13.1% in 2027 [3][9]. Inventory and Orders - The company's inventory at the end of Q1 2025 was 1.771 billion CNY, a 76.38% increase year-over-year, indicating a buildup in stock due to the slowdown in demand [8]. - The company has seen a significant increase in product orders, which is expected to drive production and better meet customer needs moving forward [8].