兴业证券（601377）：投资弹性亮眼，业绩显著修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 6.98 [8][9]. Core Insights - The company's performance has shown significant recovery, with 2024 revenue reaching RMB 12.354 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.25%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at RMB 2.164 billion, up 10.16% [1][5]. - Investment income is a key driver of growth, with 2024 investment-related revenue soaring to RMB 2.824 billion, a substantial increase of 370% year-on-year, primarily due to higher returns from derivative financial instruments [2]. - The brokerage segment has also seen notable growth, with net income in Q1 2025 reaching RMB 663 million, a year-on-year increase of 42% [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 12.354 billion in 2024, with a projected revenue of RMB 12.570 billion for 2025, reflecting a modest growth of 1.75% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from RMB 2.164 billion in 2024 to RMB 2.346 billion in 2025, representing an increase of 8.43% [7][20]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from RMB 0.25 in 2024 to RMB 0.27 in 2025 [20]. Investment and Brokerage Performance - The company's financial investment scale increased by 19% year-on-year to RMB 151.5 billion by the end of 2024, with equity investments at RMB 15.5 billion and fixed income investments at RMB 101.1 billion [2]. - The brokerage business has shown resilience, with a significant recovery in Q4 2024, where net income increased by 70% year-on-year [3]. Valuation and Market Position - The estimated price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is set at 1.02x, aligning with the average of comparable companies [5][13]. - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.79% in 2024 to 4.01% in 2025 [20].