兖矿能源：降本增效稳盈利，并购成长拓空间-20250427

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has implemented significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures, leading to a steady increase in coal production. In Q1 2025, the company produced 36.8 million tons of commercial coal, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. The target for 2025 is to achieve a commercial coal production of 155-160 million tons [3][4] - The coal chemical business has seen a notable increase in profitability due to the decline in coal prices. In Q1 2025, the chemical product output was 2.41 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The gross profit for the coal chemical business reached 1.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.1% [3][4] - The company is pursuing both organic and external growth strategies, with significant future growth potential. The company plans to acquire a 26% stake in Northwest Mining for 4.748 billion yuan and invest 9.318 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance profitability and support the goal of achieving 300 million tons of raw coal production [3][4] Financial Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported total revenue of 30.312 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.71 billion yuan, down 27.86% year-on-year. The operating cash flow was 3.662 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.04% year-on-year [1][3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 13.3 billion, 13.9 billion, and 14.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.32, 1.39, and 1.41 yuan per share [4][5] - The company's debt ratio is 62.59%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.06 percentage points, indicating improved financial stability [1][3]