XUSHENG(603305) 国盛证券·2025-04-27 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 4.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 420 million, down 42% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 1.05 billion, a year-on-year decline of 8.1%, and a net profit of 100 million, down 39% year-on-year [1]. - The company's automotive business is significantly influenced by the sales fluctuations of its largest customer, Tesla, which sold 496,000 and 337,000 vehicles in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [2]. - Emerging businesses, particularly in energy storage and robotics, are experiencing high growth, with energy storage revenue expected to exceed 234 million in 2024, representing over 200% year-on-year growth [2]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is reported at 17.6% and 20.8%, respectively, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2 percentage points in Q1 2025 [3]. - The operating expense ratio for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 is 9.5% and 11.2%, respectively, reflecting adjustments in accounting and revenue scale fluctuations [3]. - The company is positioned to leverage its capabilities in die-casting, forging, and extrusion, with plans for new factories in Thailand and Mexico to enhance its global footprint [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 490 million, 562 million, and 654 million, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.5, 21.4, and 18.4 [4][5].