房地产：2025年4月中央政治局会议解读

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The central political bureau meeting on April 25, 2025, emphasized the importance of "urban renewal" as a significant factor for the real estate market, indicating that stabilizing the real estate market is crucial for expanding domestic demand [1][5] - The meeting highlighted the need to accelerate the implementation of urban renewal actions, effectively and orderly promote the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated housing, and increase the supply of high-quality housing [5][8] - The report anticipates that the demand for "good houses" will drive sustainable development in the industry, with a focus on safety, comfort, and green living standards [5][8] Summary by Sections Policy and Market Dynamics - The report discusses the implementation of more proactive macro policies, including the issuance of local government special bonds and the potential for interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [5][8] - It notes that as of April 10, 2025, approximately 850 projects for acquiring idle land have been proposed, covering over 40 million square meters and amounting to 128.2 billion yuan [5] Urban Renewal and Housing Quality - The report emphasizes that urban renewal will be a key policy focus for the year, with a significant portion of the existing housing stock eligible for renovation [5][8] - It states that about 31.9% of the existing urban residential stock was built before 2000, indicating substantial potential for urban renewal projects [5] Market Stability and Investment Opportunities - The report indicates that the real estate market has shown signs of stabilization, with average sales prices for commercial housing increasing by 0.7% and 0.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively [5][8] - It suggests that the market's stability will depend on the effective implementation of supportive policies in the second quarter of 2025 [5][8] - The report identifies four main investment lines: companies with strong fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery of the second-hand housing market [5]