TYN(000591) 高盛·2025-04-27 03:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Cell & Module and Film, while it has a "Sell" rating on Glass, Poly, Wafer, and Equipment [4]. Core Insights - The profitability of the solar industry is expected to face deterioration for Cell and Module, while Glass may see temporary improvement due to price hikes [6][14]. - The report highlights a significant decline in solar capital expenditure, projected at -55% year-over-year in 2025, alongside a lower capacity utilization rate averaging 59% from 2025 to 2030 [4]. - The report indicates that upstream pricing in China has started to lose momentum as the peak of rush installations is ending, while US module pricing has jumped due to a 90-day tariff exemption [19]. Summary by Sections Pricing Dynamics - As of April 17, 2025, month-to-date (MTD) spot prices for Poly/Wafer/Cell/Module/Glass/Film/Inverter in China showed average changes of -1%/-0.3%/-7%/+0.5%/+5%/+0%/+1%, while overseas module prices increased by 20% in the US [19]. - The report notes that inventory days across the value chain have improved to below 20 days, except for Poly at 40 days and Glass at 27 days, driven by strong domestic demand [13]. Production and Demand - Production volumes across the solar value chain are expected to recover significantly in April, with Poly/Wafer/Cell/Glass/Module projected to increase by +4%/+17%/+29%/+9%/+31% month-over-month [12]. - The report anticipates a decline in inventory levels across the value chain, with a lowered production-to-demand ratio at 94% in April compared to 104% in March [15]. Profitability Trends - The average cash gross profit margin (GPM) for Poly/Wafer/Cell/Module/Glass/Film in April showed changes of -0.3pp/+0.4pp/-11pp/-6pp/+3pp/+1pp, indicating a decline in profitability for Cell and Module [10]. - Monthly average cash profitability for the companies covered is expected to remain largely flat month-over-month in April, although it is better than the first quarter of 2025 [7].