CHINA PET FOODS(002891) 华创证券·2025-04-27 06:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.465 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.15%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 394 million yuan, up 68.89% year-on-year, with a non-recurring net profit of 386 million yuan, increasing by 71.74% [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.276 billion yuan, a growth of 23.31% year-on-year, and a net profit of 112 million yuan, which is a significant increase of 98.20% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.101 billion yuan, marking a 25.41% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 91 million yuan, up 62.13% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The total revenue is projected to grow from 4.465 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.746 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.7% [3]. - The net profit is expected to rise from 394 million yuan in 2024 to 472 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 19.8% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to increase from 1.33 yuan in 2024 to 1.60 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34 times in 2025 [3]. Business Segmentation and Growth Drivers - The company's domestic business revenue reached 1.414 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 30.26%, and a gross margin improvement of 4 percentage points to 35.18% [7]. - The main grain category saw a revenue surge of 91.85% to 1.107 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 34.59% [7]. - The company is expanding its overseas presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, enhancing its brand influence and market share [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an upward revision of the EPS forecast for 2025 and 2026 to 1.60 yuan and 2.12 yuan per share, respectively, and introduces a 2027 forecast of 2.64 yuan per share [7]. - A target price of 69 yuan per share is set, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 43 times for 2025, reflecting the company's strong growth potential [7].