Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In recent weeks, the performance of major global market assets generally aligns with the scenario assumption that the US will fall into "stagflation." The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A-share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The significant tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and have a negative impact on its economic growth. It is also highly likely to push up inflation in the short term. Whether tariff-induced inflation will turn into persistent stagflation is the key to determining the intensity and duration of trade frictions. If persistent stagflation occurs, the situation of a triple sell-off in US stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange will continue, increasing the difficulty for the Trump administration to persist in trade frictions [2][10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for the realization of the stagflation scenario. The retail data of US goods in the second quarter is particularly important. If US residents' consumption is rigid, the tariff hikes will mainly be passed on to commodity prices, and workers may demand higher wages, forming a new "wage - price spiral," increasing the probability of persistent stagflation. The nominal growth rate of US commodity retail sales in April is an important indicator. If it significantly exceeds the previous fluctuation range, it is more in line with the stagflation scenario assumption; otherwise, it is necessary to consider whether the current style of major asset classes has reached the extreme. The CPI data for April also has indicative value, but retail data reflects both price and quantity [2][11]. - Another factor determining whether the stagflation scenario can be realized is the policy choice of the Federal Reserve. Even if tariffs are regarded as consumption taxes, their inflationary effects may not be long - lasting. If the Trump administration forces the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy, the stagflation scenario is more likely to be realized. However, if the Trump administration only wants to blame the possible economic recession on the Federal Reserve, the situation may be different [2][14]. Summary According to the Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The performance of major global market assets in recent weeks is in line with the scenario assumption of US stagflation. The US stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets are under pressure, while the A - share market shows resilience, and the gold price hits new highs. The tariff hikes by the US will impact the supply chain and push up inflation in the short term. Whether it turns into persistent stagflation is the key to trade frictions [10]. - The consumption rigidity of US residents is crucial for stagflation. The second - quarter US commodity retail data is important. In April, the US imposed so - called "reciprocal tariffs." If the nominal growth rate of retail sales significantly exceeds the previous range, it is in line with the stagflation scenario; otherwise, it is necessary to re - evaluate the asset style. The April CPI data also has indicative value [11]. - The policy choice of the Federal Reserve is another factor for stagflation. The inflationary effect of tariffs may not be long - lasting. Forcing the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy may lead to stagflation, but if it's just for blame - shifting, the situation may vary [14]. - In the week from April 21 to April 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.65% week - on - week and 1.64% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale price index decreased by 2.07% week - on - week and 9.83% year - on - year. On April 18, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 3.61%. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices increased by 1.23% and 0.74% week - on - week respectively. LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 2.72% and 2.27% week - on - week respectively, and the copper - gold ratio increased by 0.91% week - on - week. The domestic cement price index decreased by 0.48% week - on - week; the Nanhua iron ore index increased by 1.43% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 2 million tons increased by 2.54% week - on - week; the rebar inventory decreased by 4.58% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 1.37% week - on - week. On April 18, the producer price index decreased by 0.30% week - on - week and 7.27% year - on - year. From April 1 to 24, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was about 203,000 square meters [2]. Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators' Trends - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the RJ/CRB price index year - on - year and export amount year - on - year, the relationship between the producer price index year - on - year and PPI industrial year - on - year, etc. [22][25][31] Important US High - Frequency Indicators - Multiple charts show important US high - frequency indicators, including the implied prospects of interest rate hikes/cuts in US federal funds futures, the relationship between US same - store sales growth and PCE year - on - year, the relationship between US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, and the relationship between the number of first - time unemployment claims in the US and the unemployment rate [89][96][99] Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - Multiple charts show the seasonal trends of high - frequency data, including the seasonal trends of the average daily output of crude steel (decadal), the producer price index, the total index of the China Commodity Price Index, etc. [100][104][109] High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - Multiple charts show the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [154][156]
高频数据扫描：贸易摩擦将迎关键数据
中银国际·2025-04-27 08:18