Shede Spirits (600702) 国信证券·2025-04-27 10:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [7][5][6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin improved quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 69.4% in Q1 2025, although it decreased by 4.9 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company is maintaining active expense investments during the peak season to promote sales, with a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year [3] - A stock incentive plan was announced, granting up to 2.0366 million shares to 168 individuals, with performance targets set for 2025-2027 [4] - Revenue and profit are expected to gradually improve as the company enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 1.576 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 346 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [1] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 1.234 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year, while ordinary liquor revenue was 208 million yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [2] - The company reported a net profit margin of 22.0%, down 4.18 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow, which increased by 106.8% year-on-year to 224 million yuan [3] Market and Channel Analysis - The company has optimized its channel structure, with a total of 2,621 distributors as of the end of Q1 2025, a decrease of 42 from the end of 2024 [2] - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 36.7% year-on-year to 205 million yuan, reflecting a trend towards online sales in the liquor market [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in revenue and performance as it enters a low base period in Q2 2025, with projected revenues of 5.08 billion, 5.38 billion, and 5.76 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The stock incentive plan aims to motivate employees with performance targets that require significant revenue and profit growth over the next three years [4]