ANGEL YEAST(600298) 华创证券·2025-04-27 10:25Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Angel Yeast (600298) with a target price of 44 CNY, indicating a potential upside of over 30% from the current price of 33.69 CNY [2][3][7]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that Angel Yeast is entering a new profit cycle, driven by significant cost reductions and a peak in depreciation, which will lead to at least two years of profit improvement. The company is positioned to become the global leader in the yeast industry, with substantial growth opportunities in emerging markets [2][7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: Projected total revenue for 2024 is 15,197 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.9%. By 2027, revenue is expected to reach 21,307 million CNY, growing at a rate of 11.3% [3]. - Net Profit Forecast: The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1,325 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 2,179 million CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.2% in the final year [3]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to rise from 1.52 CNY in 2024 to 2.51 CNY in 2027, reflecting a strong upward trend [3]. - Valuation Ratios: The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 22 in 2024 to 13 by 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [3]. Profit Cycle Analysis - Cost and Depreciation Dynamics: The report highlights that the profit cycle is influenced by cost fluctuations and production cycles. A significant reduction in sugar molasses costs is anticipated, with a projected decline of over 15% in 2025, which will enhance profit margins [7][10]. - Profit Margin Outlook: The net profit margin is expected to improve, with a target of reaching 12% in the current cycle, compared to historical peaks of 15% [7][9]. Long-term Growth Drivers - Global Market Expansion: Angel Yeast currently holds a 20% global market share, but its overseas market share is below 10%. The company is focused on expanding its presence in developing countries, which presents significant growth potential [8][9]. - Overseas Revenue Growth: The report notes that overseas revenue has been growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.5% from 2022 to 2024, driven by strategic reforms and market penetration efforts [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current price offers a good entry point for investors, given the expected improvement in profitability and the long-term growth potential in both domestic and international markets [7][9].