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市场若回档充分则再次提供买入机会
国盛证券·2025-04-27 12:17
  • The A-share sentiment index observation shows that the current sentiment bottom signal is empty, the sentiment top signal is empty, and the comprehensive signal is empty[2][58][59] - The A-share prosperity index is constructed based on the year-on-year net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai Composite Index as the Nowcasting target[48] - As of April 25, 2025, the A-share prosperity index is 20.72, an increase of 15.29 compared to the end of 2023, and is currently in an upward cycle[49] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 0.68% this week, and the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 0.14%[2] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a return of 1.88% this week, outperforming the benchmark by 0.68%. Since 2020, the portfolio has achieved an excess return of 42.30% relative to the CSI 500 index, with a maximum drawdown of -4.99%[64] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Jiangsu Guoxin (3.20%), Hengdian Dongci (2.97%), and Haohua Technology (2.94%)[68] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a return of 0.72% this week, outperforming the benchmark by 0.14%. Since 2020, the portfolio has achieved an excess return of 24.29% relative to the CSI 300 index, with a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[71] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio's holdings include stocks such as Xinhua Cheng (5.78%), GF Securities (5.65%), and COSCO Shipping Holdings (5.13%)[75] - The style factor performance shows that the momentum factor has high excess returns, while residual volatility has significant negative excess returns[2][78] - The style factors constructed include: size (SIZE), beta (BETA), momentum (MOM), residual volatility (RESVOL), nonlinear size (NLSIZE), valuation (BTOP), liquidity (LIQUIDITY), earnings yield (EARNINGS_YIELD), growth (GROWTH), and leverage (LVRG)[77] - The pure factor returns for the past week show that the automotive, electric power, and utilities industry factors have achieved high excess returns relative to the market capitalization-weighted portfolio, while the consumer services, national defense, and food and beverage industry factors have experienced significant drawdowns[2][78] - The correlation between style factors shows that liquidity is positively correlated with beta, momentum, and residual volatility, while value is negatively correlated with momentum, residual volatility, and liquidity[79] - The performance attribution of major indices shows that the recent market preference for high momentum exposure stocks has led to good performance in style factors for indices such as the ChiNext Index and Wind All A, while indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 have performed poorly in style factors due to low momentum exposure[86] - The performance attribution statistics for major indices include the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, ChiNext Index, and Wind All A[87][88][91][94][97]