GDPD(600795) 国盛证券·2025-04-27 13:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [6] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from new installed capacity and cost advantages, with significant growth potential in hydropower projects in the Dadu River basin [4][3] - The company's Q1 2025 performance aligns with expectations, showing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, driven by improved cash flow [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.81 billion yuan, an increase of 1.5% [1] - The operating cash flow net amount was 14.026 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 92.8% [1] - The average on-grid electricity price in Q1 was 425.41 yuan per megawatt-hour, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous year [2] Installed Capacity and Growth Potential - As of March 31, 2025, the company's total installed capacity was 116.39 million kilowatts, with significant contributions from thermal, hydropower, wind, and solar energy [3] - The company plans to commission 1.365 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity in 2025 and 2.155 million kilowatts in 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected operating revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 183.90 billion yuan, 191.67 billion yuan, and 198.59 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 2.6%, 4.2%, and 3.6% [4][5] - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for the same years is 7.65 billion yuan, 9.04 billion yuan, and 9.56 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.43 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.54 yuan [4][5]