地方债周度跟踪：发行下降净融资提升，10Y和30Y减国债利差小幅收窄-20250427

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current issuance of local government bonds is decreasing, and the weighted issuance term is shortening. The issuance and net financing of local government bonds are expected to decline in the next period due to the holiday effect. The current local government bonds have both allocation and trading value, and it is a good time to invest in them [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds has not accelerated yet. As of April 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds and new special bonds is lower than that in 2023 but higher than that in 2024 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in the second quarter of 2025 is 223.35 billion yuan, with relatively even monthly planned issuances [2]. - The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds have narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. The spreads are still at relatively high historical quantiles, indicating high cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds has decreased, and the weighted issuance term has shortened - In the current period (April 21 - April 27, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds is 191.123 billion yuan/162.512 billion yuan (the previous period was 200.617 billion yuan/122.718 billion yuan). The next period (April 28 - May 4, 2025) is expected to issue/have a net financing of 93.092 billion yuan/92.697 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 13.24 years, shorter than the previous period's 19.08 years [2][8][9]. - As of April 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounts for 36.9% and 25.8% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 37.8% and 27.1%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 32.0%/16.9% and 34.5%/18.4%, and in 2023 it was 44.2%/38.0% and 45.9%/40.2% [2][13][16]. - As of April 25, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 223.35 billion yuan for local government bonds in the second quarter of 2025 (81.96 billion yuan, 67.04 billion yuan, and 74.52 billion yuan from April to June respectively), including 107.97 billion yuan for new special bonds (31.3 billion yuan, 39.44 billion yuan, and 37.23 billion yuan from April to June respectively). The issuance in the same regions in the previous year was 164.02 billion yuan and 77.96 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the previous year was 191.89 billion yuan and 85.93 billion yuan [2][24][25]. - In the current period, 9 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 49.6 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued. As of April 25, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds is 143.7 billion yuan (9 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts is 1,593.3 billion yuan (49.6 billion yuan in the current period), with an issuance progress of 79.7%. Seventeen regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance (no new regions in the current period) [2][20]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds have narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased - As of April 25, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds are 25.94BP and 21.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.13BP and 2.34BP compared to April 18, 2025 (27.07BP and 23.58BP on April 18, 2025), and are at the 81.6% and 86.6% historical quantiles since 2023, still having high cost - effectiveness [2][30][31]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period is 0.80%, lower than the previous period's 0.93%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Yunnan are better than the national average [2][36].