恒生电子：业绩筑底蓄势，AI+信创驱动增长-20250428

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][18]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a bottoming out of its performance, with growth driven by AI and domestic innovation [2]. - The report highlights a short-term pressure on core business but anticipates a recovery in demand as market conditions improve [7]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are expected to enhance profitability, while ongoing R&D investments are aimed at long-term competitiveness [7]. - The integration of AI technology is set to reshape the financial technology ecosystem, with significant growth potential in domestic innovation applications [7]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 65.81 billion, a decrease of 9.6% year-on-year, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [3][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 10.43 billion for 2024, down 26.8% year-on-year, with a rebound anticipated in 2025 [3][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.55 in 2024 to 0.85 by 2027 [3][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 47 in 2024 to 31 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [3][7]. Business Segment Performance - Wealth technology services reported revenue of 1.43 billion, down 17.5% year-on-year [7]. - Asset management technology services generated 1.57 billion, a decline of 8.38% [7]. - Operations and institutional technology services saw revenue of 1.29 billion, down 10.24% [7]. - Innovative business revenue was 515 million, down 7.34% [7]. - Data services revenue reached 354 million, a decrease of 8.13% [7]. Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow to 71.2 billion in 2025, 76.3 billion in 2026, and 81.5 billion in 2027 [7]. - Net profit is projected to increase to 12.5 billion in 2025, 14.3 billion in 2026, and 16.0 billion in 2027 [7]. - The target price for the company is set at 33 yuan, based on a 50 times P/E ratio for 2025 [7].