摩根士丹利：英伟达-供应受限但需求消化良好，因推理需求激增上调 2026 年预期

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to NVIDIA Corp. with a price target of $160.00, reflecting a strong outlook for the company in the semiconductor industry [5][29]. Core Insights - The demand for inference chips is surging, driven by the growth in AI applications, despite supply constraints limiting immediate availability [2][8]. - The report emphasizes that the current phase is not one of digestion but rather a robust demand environment for AI-related hardware, particularly GPUs [8][26]. - NVIDIA's revenue estimates for CY26 have been raised by 10.7$30 billion in the current quarter, a historic achievement for a single semiconductor product [19][20]. Financial Estimates - For FY26, total revenue is projected at $190 billion, with a significant portion coming from the Data Center segment [27][40]. - The report anticipates gross margins to improve starting in July, supported by a decline in H20 shipments and ongoing growth in AI demand [21][25]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that NVIDIA's competitive position is strengthened by broader availability of its Blackwell architecture later in 2025, which is expected to enhance system sales [32]. - Despite concerns regarding supply chain issues, the report suggests that improvements are being made, and demand remains strong across various geographies [18][26]. Risk and Reward - The report indicates a favorable risk-reward scenario for NVIDIA, with a premium valuation compared to peers, reflecting confidence in upward revisions to estimates [29][37]. - The consensus rating distribution shows a strong preference for "Overweight" ratings, indicating positive sentiment among analysts [34].