齐心集团：营收逆势增长，减值阶段性拖累盈利-20250428

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 11.397 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.69%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 62.82 million RMB, down 18.32% year-on-year due to a provision for asset and credit impairment losses of 120 million RMB [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.212 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, with a net profit of 48.87 million RMB, down 1.14% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to focus on core clients and business scenarios in office procurement, which is anticipated to lead to stable growth in business scale [1] - The company plans to enhance IP collaboration in new stationery products, which is expected to contribute to growth [1] - After the impairment provisions, the company is expected to recover its profitability in 2025 [1] Revenue and Profitability - The B2B office supplies and new stationery business generated a revenue of 11.352 billion RMB in 2024, up 3.00% year-on-year, with a net profit of 22 million RMB, down 9.8% year-on-year excluding goodwill impairment [2] - The SaaS software and services segment reported a revenue of 45 million RMB in 2024, down 41.93% year-on-year, with a net loss of 110 million RMB, slightly narrowing from a loss of 112 million RMB in 2023 [2] Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 increased by 0.21 percentage points to 8.59%, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin businesses and improved operational efficiency [3] - The operating expense ratio decreased by 0.50 percentage points to 6.46%, with the sales expense ratio increasing by 0.10 percentage points to 4.99% due to higher marketing expenses [3] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected at 222.91 million RMB, 280.47 million RMB, and 339.96 million RMB respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31 RMB, 0.39 RMB, and 0.47 RMB [4][6] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 8.37 RMB, based on a PE ratio of 27 times for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous target price of 7.03 RMB [4][8] - The current market capitalization is approximately 5.028 billion RMB, with a closing price of 6.97 RMB as of April 25 [8]