CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) 国信证券·2025-04-28 11:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][20] Core Views - The company is focusing on cost reduction and increasing production to offset the decline in coal prices, while also enhancing shareholder returns through increased dividend frequency [1][4][18] - The company plans to maintain a mid-term dividend in 2025, with a payout ratio of no less than 30% [3][18] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 38.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.98 billion yuan, down 20.0% [1][9] - The coal business showed stable production and sales, with a total coal production of 33.35 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year [2][11] - The average selling price for self-produced thermal coal and coking coal was 454 yuan/ton and 922 yuan/ton, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [2][11] Coal Business - The company reported a decrease in gross profit for the coal segment to 7.45 billion yuan, down 26.7 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in coal prices [2][11] - The unit sales cost for self-produced coal decreased to 269.8 yuan/ton, a reduction of 21.2 yuan/ton year-on-year, attributed to various cost management strategies [2][11] Coal Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment saw an increase in production and sales, with total production and sales of 1.559 million tons and 1.625 million tons, respectively, up 10.6% and 12.1% year-on-year [3][16] - The unit sales costs for major products decreased due to falling coal prices, with reductions of 2.1% to 18.8% across various products [3][16] Profit Forecast and Financial Indicators - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted to 16.8 billion yuan, 16.9 billion yuan, and 17.7 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to anticipated coal price declines [4][20] - Key financial metrics include a projected net profit margin of 15.2% for 2025 and a return on equity (ROE) of 10.3% [5][21]