Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) with a target price of HKD 32.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.5% from the current price of HKD 21.55 [6][10][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in net profit for Q1 2025, down 18.1% year-on-year, primarily due to a 15% decrease in investment income. However, new business value has shown strong growth, increasing by 11.3% year-on-year [6][12]. - The life insurance premium growth is driven mainly by the bancassurance channel, with a significant increase in participating insurance's share of new business premiums [6][12]. - The report notes improvements in the comprehensive cost ratio for property and casualty insurance, with a slight decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6][12]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for China Pacific Insurance are as follows: - 2023: RMB 323,945 million - 2024: RMB 404,089 million - 2025E: RMB 421,651 million - 2026E: RMB 444,268 million - 2027E: RMB 465,683 million - The year-on-year growth rates are projected at -2.5% for 2023, 24.7% for 2024, and 4.3% for 2025E [5][12][13]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 27,257 million - 2024: RMB 44,960 million - 2025E: RMB 41,651 million - 2026E: RMB 44,083 million - 2027E: RMB 46,176 million - The year-on-year growth rates show a decline of 27.1% in 2023, followed by a recovery of 64.9% in 2024, and a projected decrease of 7.4% in 2025E [5][12][13]. Business Performance - The new business value for 2025E is projected at RMB 14,572 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.9% [7][8][12]. - The report indicates that the number of agents has increased to 188,000, reflecting a 1.1% year-on-year growth, and the retention rate for new agents has improved by 4.8 percentage points [6][12]. - The investment assets are expected to grow by 13.3% in 2025E, reaching RMB 3,097,498 million [13].
中国太保：盈利同比下降，新业务价值增长强劲-20250428