LZLJ(000568) 国信证券·2025-04-28 12:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][12] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.7% [1][4] - The company has set a shareholder return plan for 2024-2026, committing to a cash dividend of no less than 65%/70%/75% of net profit for each year [1] - The company is focusing on digital transformation, which is expected to enhance internal management efficiency and eventually lead to revenue growth as the consumer-centric model is established [4][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company recorded a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, and a net profit of 13.5 billion yuan, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][5] - The revenue for Q4 2024 was 6.89 billion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, while the net profit was 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 9.35 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.8%, and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year [1] Product and Market Analysis - The sales of the Guojiao brand exceeded 20 billion yuan, while the Luzhou Laojiao brand surpassed 10 billion yuan in 2024 [2] - The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reached 27.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] - The company is actively expanding both traditional and new sales channels, with revenue growth of 3.2% and 4.2% respectively in 2024 [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for liquor business decreased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in the payment price for Guojiao [2] - The company managed to maintain a good level of expense management, with the tax rate and sales expense ratio showing slight increases [2][3] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 31.7 billion yuan, 33.4 billion yuan, and 35.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.7%, 5.2%, and 6.4% [4][11] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 13.6 billion yuan, 14.2 billion yuan, and 15.2 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 4.5%, and 7.1% [4][11]