迎驾贡酒：省外节奏拖累，产品结构持续优化-20250429

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.34 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.59 billion RMB, up 13.4% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.05 billion RMB, down 12.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 830 million RMB, a decrease of 9.5% year-on-year [2]. - The overall performance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 shows a revenue decline of 9% and a net profit decline of 8% compared to the previous year, which was below market expectations [2]. Revenue Analysis - In terms of product revenue, mid-to-high-end and regular liquor generated 5.71 billion RMB and 1.29 billion RMB in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 13.8% and a decline of 6.5% respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, mid-to-high-end and regular liquor revenues were 1.72 billion RMB and 240 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.6% and 32.1% respectively [3]. - The revenue from provincial and out-of-province sales in 2024 was 5.09 billion RMB and 1.91 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth of 12.8% and 1.3% respectively [3]. Profitability and Financial Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 increased by 1.5 percentage points to 35.3%, with a gross margin increase of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin rose by 1.3 percentage points to 40.5%, with a gross margin increase of 1.5 percentage points [4]. - The report forecasts net profits of 2.72 billion RMB, 2.90 billion RMB, and 3.26 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.9%, 6.6%, and 12.3% [5]. Valuation Metrics - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 3.40 RMB, 3.62 RMB, and 4.07 RMB respectively [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.4, 13.5, and 12.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [5].