高盛：全球经济综述 ——2025 年 4 月 25 日

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant pullback in new export orders in countries affected by tariffs, particularly Canada and Mexico, with a historical correlation indicating that a 1-point decline in the S&P new manufacturing export orders PMI component predicts a 0.75 percentage point hit to year-on-year export growth [2]. - The April flash PMIs indicate mixed trends in developed markets (DM), with the DM composite flash PMI falling by 1.1 points to 50.7, driven by a decline in the services component [2]. - The report notes that the Euro area composite flash PMI declined to 50.1 in April, slightly below consensus expectations, with services leading the decline [4]. Summary by Sections Global Trade Data - The report compiles a data calendar for upcoming global business surveys and trade data releases, emphasizing the importance of country-specific export data as indicators of how tariffs are reshaping global trade [2]. - Early releases of trade data have shown a correlation with US trade flows, with expectations of a pullback due to tariff implementation [2]. US Economics - The report indicates a growth slowdown, with a lowered Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.6 percentage points to -0.2%, influenced by mixed signals from housing and durable goods orders [3]. - It discusses the potential impact of Canadian elections on GDP growth, with increased spending under a Liberal government expected to raise GDP levels by 0.6-0.7% over the next four years [3]. European Economics - The report notes that long-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey remained at 4.4%, with consumer sentiment significantly below earlier levels [4]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25 basis point cut and signaled concerns about growth, with expectations for further cuts in the coming months [4]. Asia/EM Economics - The report assesses the disinflationary impact of tariff-induced global supply reallocation, estimating a potential downside of 1.5% to the price level of core goods [5]. - It highlights the expected impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports and anticipates a focus on easing measures from Chinese leadership in response to economic pressures [5]. GDP Forecast Tracker - The report provides GDP growth forecasts for various regions, with the US expected to grow at 1.2% in 2025, while the Euro area is projected at 0.7% [6]. - China’s growth is forecasted at 4.0% for 2025, reflecting a slowdown compared to previous years [6].