Yanghe(002304) 国金证券·2025-04-29 03:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.88 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.67 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 11.07 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, down 39.9% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [2]. - The company experienced a 16.3% decline in liquor sales in 2024, totaling 139,000 tons, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 RMB. The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion RMB and 3.93 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. - The company aims to focus on core products and key markets in 2025, with a commitment to cash dividends of no less than 7 billion RMB, corresponding to a current dividend yield of approximately 6.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.88 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.67 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 11.07 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, down 39.9% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - The company's liquor sales in 2024 decreased by 16.3% to 139,000 tons, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 RMB. Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion RMB and 3.93 billion RMB, respectively, with declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. Financial Quality - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 7.1 percentage points to 23.1%, with a gross margin of 73.2%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit margin of 32.9%, down 4.4 percentage points, indicating pressure on profitability due to increased expenses aimed at maintaining market share [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 23% reduction in net profit for 2025 and a 27% reduction for 2026. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to decline by 11.0%, followed by increases of 3.0% and 5.8% in subsequent years [5].