江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-001 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 关系活 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 动类别 | □现场参观 | | | ☑其他（电话会议） | | | 洋河股份：李笋、陈胜圣、姚忠明、陆红珍、祝海慧 | | 活动参 与人员 | 投资者：兴业证券、中信证券、国泰君安证券、浙商证券、中金公司、 | | | 银河国际、中信里昂等券商分析师及机构投资者共计 153 人 | | 时间 | 2025 年 4 月 29 日 | | 地点 | / | | 形式 | 电话会议 | | | 1、公司今年转型调整的举措？目前渠道出清的效果如何？ 当前，外部发展环境较复杂，叠加行业存量竞争加剧，地产酒收缩 | | | 聚焦，对公司发展有所影响，公司在提升品牌势能、渠道利润和渠道库 | | 交流内 | 存去化等方面工作还需要强化。 | | 容及具 | 年公司将坚持"聚焦洋河主导品牌、聚焦中端和次高端主价 2025 | | 体问答 记录 | 格带、聚焦省内市场和省外高地市场、聚焦白酒主营 ...

洋河股份（002304.SZ）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 阶段性降速调整，静待企稳改善 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 全年实现营收 288.76 亿元，同比-12.83%；实现归母净利润 66.73 亿元，同比 -33.37%；其中 24Q4 实现营收 13.60 亿元，同比-52.17%；实现归母净利润- 19.05 亿元，同比亏损扩大。25Q1 实现营收 1110.66 亿元，同比-31.92%；实 现归母净利润 36.37 亿元，同比-39.93%。 ➢ 量缩价升，停货去库调整节奏。产品方面，量价拆分来看，24 年公司白酒销 售量 13.91 万吨，同比-16.30%，吨酒价同比+3.87%；其中，中高档酒实现营 收 243.17 亿元，同比-14.79%；普通酒实现营收 39.31 亿元，同比-0.49%。分 地区看，24 年公司省内、省外收入分别实现 127.48、155.00 亿元，同比-11.43%、 -14.35%。分渠道看，批发经销实现收入 278.54 亿元，同比-13.1 ...

在行业进入深度调整期的大背景下，洋河主动调整发展节奏，通过产品体系持续焕新、产能储备持续夯 实，在结构优化与长期建设中积蓄下一阶段增长动能。产品焕新构建"黄金矩阵" 洋河的韧性，不仅源于产品的持续焕新，更来自于系统性的资源积累与能力建设。 在渠道端，公司持续推进"省内精耕、省外突破"策略，全年新增经销商77家，营销方式由"深度分销"转 向"精准营销"，推动数字化平台与终端促销结合，带动动销效率提升；如海之蓝开瓶率两个月内提升 8.8%，自点率实现双位数增长。 在产能储备上，洋河已在江苏、贵州、西藏、湖北等地建成20余平方公里的酿酒产业园，拥有7万口名 优窖池，年产原酒16万吨，储酒能力达100万吨，老酒库存达70万吨，为全行业最高。其窖池群获吉尼 斯认证，成为"全球最大规模白酒窖池群"，也为洋河在老酒体系、高端产品上的长期布局提供了坚实支 撑。 正如业内所言，白酒是典型的"时间产业"。洋河并未在行业调整期追求短期提速，而是选择通过系统建 设和战略耐性，在周期低谷期打牢未来增长的根基。当前，洋河以稳健的步伐夯实产品、渠道与组织基 础，为穿越本轮调整周期、迎接下一个上升周期蓄积力量。 4月28日，洋河股份（002 ...

洋河股份正在遭遇一场全面溃败，如何拯救糟糕的业绩成为当下的关键。 2024年至2025年一季度，洋河股份的业绩数据呈现断崖式下滑：2024年营业收入同比下降12.83%至 288.76亿元，净利润同比减少33.37%至66.73亿元；2025年一季度净利润进一步下跌39.93%至36.37亿 元。 这一连串的业绩"爆雷"不仅让洋河股份跌出白酒行业前三甲，更引发市场对其战略定位与经营能力的深 度质疑。 白酒行业自2023年起进入深度调整期，呈现出两大趋势：高端市场品牌集中度提升与中低端市场消费分 级加剧。茅台、五粮液、泸州老窖凭借品牌溢价和高端产品矩阵（如茅台飞天、五粮液普五、国窖 1573）持续扩大市场份额，2024年三者合计占据高端白酒市场85%以上的份额。反观洋河股份，其高端 产品"梦之蓝M9+""手工班"系列虽定价超千元，但市场认知度不足，2024年高端产品收入占比仅为 15%，远低于茅台的90%和五粮液的60%。 与此同时，中低端市场（300元以下）因消费降级竞争白热化。洋河核心产品"海之蓝""天之蓝"占据其 营收的70%，但2024年销量同比下降18%，主因在于竞品汾酒青花20、古井贡年份原浆等通过 ...

以产品创新锻造发展韧性 国家统计局数据显示，2025年1月份至3月份规模以上企业累计白酒产量103.2万千升，同比下降7.3%。 面对行业变化和竞争，洋河股份坚守高质量发展的底层逻辑，以"储酒+创新"的形式锻造发展韧性。 据了解，洋河股份白酒生产规模在行业内处于领先位置，公司在江苏、贵州、西藏、湖北等区域，共建 成了20余平方公里的酿酒产业园，所拥有的名优窖池7万口，2000多口老窖池。 本报讯 （记者曹卫新）4月29日，江苏洋河酒厂股份有限公司（以下简称"洋河股份"）发布2024年年报 及2025年一季度报告。2024年公司实现营业收入288.76亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润66.73亿元， 归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润（以下简称"扣非净利润"）68.35亿元；2025年一季 度，公司实现营业收入110.66亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净利润36.37亿元，扣非净利润36.17亿元。 面对行业变局及市场竞争，洋河股份主动调整发展节奏，以储酒量保障产品升级，以创新变革的举措拓 宽"护城河"，提升核心竞争力，彰显企业发展韧性。 "省内精耕+省外突破"双轮驱动 作为全国大型白酒生产企业，洋河股份 ...

事件：公司发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报。2024 年实现营业收入288.76亿元，同比-12.8%；实现归母 净利润66.73 亿元，同比增-33.4%；实现扣非归母净利润68.35 亿元，同比-30.6%。分季度看，其中单 24Q4 实现营业收入13.60 亿元，同比-52.2%；实现归母净利润-19.05 亿元，去年同期为-1.88 亿元。单 25Q1 实现营业收入110.66 亿元，同比-31.9%；实现归母净利润36.37 亿元，同比-39.9%。 需求下探竞争加剧，主动降速换挡，深度调整穿越周期。公司自24Q2 起进入降速调整周期， 24Q4+25Q1 收入合计同比下滑34.9%。24 年分产品结构看，中高档酒/普通酒营收分别为243.17/39.31 亿 元，同比分别-14.8%/-0.5%。整体需求疲软下300 元以上中高档酒降幅较大，M6+等核心单品所处次高 端价格带仍承压，预计普通酒海天系列表现优于整体。公司自24 年以来营销体系及渠道管仍处调整阶 段，通过优化内部管理和产品结构调整，努力应对市场挑战，着力长期方向穿越周期。 省内竞争加剧下市场表现承压，渠道收现压力较大，加速库存去 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its fundamentals, with expectations for improvement in the future [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.17 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 7 billion yuan, which represents 105% of the net profit for the period [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.7 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year [5][8] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a decline of 52.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 11.1 billion yuan, down 31.9% year-on-year, and the net profit was 3.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.9% year-on-year [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor revenue in 2024 was 28.2 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of -16% and +4%, respectively [9] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 24.3 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the ordinary liquor segment achieved 3.9 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [9] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.1%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][12] - The company has increased its sales and management expense ratios to 19.1% and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting a rise in competitive pressures [9] Future Projections - The company expects a slight revenue increase in 2025 to 28.97 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 6.7 billion yuan [8][12] - The estimated net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 6.9 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [8][12] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders through dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio despite the decline in profits [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][24]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 28.88 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue and profit, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [2][4][8]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a deep clearing of its financial statements, with a commitment to dividends providing a safety net for investors. The total dividend for 2024 is set at 7 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 6.5% [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Total revenue: 28.88 billion yuan, down 12.8% YoY - Net profit: 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% YoY - Earnings per share (EPS): 4.43 yuan [4][8]. - **2025 Projections**: - Expected total revenue: 23.41 billion yuan, down 18.9% YoY - Expected net profit: 5.59 billion yuan, down 16.3% YoY - Projected EPS: 3.71 yuan [4][8]. - **Market Position**: - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and maintaining price stability for its main products, particularly in the Jiangsu region. The strategy includes managing quotas and enhancing marketing efforts to support sales [2][8]. - **Valuation Metrics**: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 19 times, with a target price of 82 yuan based on a 22 times P/E ratio [4][8]. - **Cash Flow and Debt**: - The company reported a significant increase in contract liabilities, indicating a focus on managing cash flow amidst declining sales [2][8]. - **Market Trends**: - The report notes a challenging market environment with a decline in both volume and price for the company's products, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [2][8]. - **Future Outlook**: - The company is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, driven by new product launches and a lower base from the previous year [2][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 101.97 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 28.88 billion and 6.67 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 33.4% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant drop in revenue to 1.36 billion RMB, down 52.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.91 billion RMB [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 11.07 billion and 3.64 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 39.9% respectively. The overall performance was below previous expectations due to intensified competition in the mid-range and sub-premium segments [1][4]. - The company is proactively adjusting its product offerings and channel strategies to focus on long-term healthy development, despite facing external pressures that may continue to impact sales in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from mid-to-high-end and regular liquor was 24.32 billion and 3.93 billion RMB, with gross margins decreasing by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points to 78.7% and 45.3% respectively. Revenue from domestic and external markets was 12.75 billion and 15.50 billion RMB, down 11.4% and 14.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points, attributed to a decline in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products. The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 75.6%, with net profit margin decreasing to 32.9% [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has initiated inventory reduction measures in the first quarter of 2025. New products have been launched to fill market gaps, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing product offerings [2][3]. - The external environment is expected to remain challenging in the short term, but there is optimism for a gradual recovery in industry demand, which could lead to improved performance [1][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 3.09 and 3.20 RMB, with a new estimate for 2027 at 3.36 RMB. The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 33 times [4][6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward by 22% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting anticipated challenges in sales performance and competitive pressures [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 28.88 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 6.67 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 shows a revenue of 11.07 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, down 39.9% year-on-year, which is below market expectations [2]. - The company experienced a 16.3% decline in liquor sales in 2024, totaling 139,000 tons, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 RMB. The revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion RMB and 3.93 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. - The company aims to focus on core products and key markets in 2025, with a commitment to cash dividends of no less than 7 billion RMB, corresponding to a current dividend yield of approximately 6.5% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.88 billion RMB, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.67 billion RMB, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 reported a revenue of 11.07 billion RMB, down 31.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.64 billion RMB, down 39.9% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2]. Operational Analysis - The company's liquor sales in 2024 decreased by 16.3% to 139,000 tons, while the price per ton increased by 3.9% to 203,000 RMB. Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and regular liquor was 24.32 billion RMB and 3.93 billion RMB, respectively, with declines of 14.8% and 0.5% [3]. Financial Quality - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 7.1 percentage points to 23.1%, with a gross margin of 73.2%. The first quarter of 2025 saw a net profit margin of 32.9%, down 4.4 percentage points, indicating pressure on profitability due to increased expenses aimed at maintaining market share [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects a 23% reduction in net profit for 2025 and a 27% reduction for 2026. Expected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to decline by 11.0%, followed by increases of 3.0% and 5.8% in subsequent years [5].