Yanghe(002304) 华泰证券·2025-04-29 07:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 101.97 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue and net profit of 28.88 billion and 6.67 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 33.4% respectively. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant drop in revenue to 1.36 billion RMB, down 52.2% year-on-year, and a net loss of 1.91 billion RMB [1][2]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue and net profit of 11.07 billion and 3.64 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and 39.9% respectively. The overall performance was below previous expectations due to intensified competition in the mid-range and sub-premium segments [1][4]. - The company is proactively adjusting its product offerings and channel strategies to focus on long-term healthy development, despite facing external pressures that may continue to impact sales in the short term [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue from mid-to-high-end and regular liquor was 24.32 billion and 3.93 billion RMB, with gross margins decreasing by 1.6 and 0.9 percentage points to 78.7% and 45.3% respectively. Revenue from domestic and external markets was 12.75 billion and 15.50 billion RMB, down 11.4% and 14.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points, attributed to a decline in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products. The first quarter of 2025 saw a gross margin of 75.6%, with net profit margin decreasing to 32.9% [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development and has initiated inventory reduction measures in the first quarter of 2025. New products have been launched to fill market gaps, indicating a strategic shift towards enhancing product offerings [2][3]. - The external environment is expected to remain challenging in the short term, but there is optimism for a gradual recovery in industry demand, which could lead to improved performance [1][4]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 3.09 and 3.20 RMB, with a new estimate for 2027 at 3.36 RMB. The average price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for comparable companies in 2025 is estimated at 33 times [4][6]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts downward by 22% for 2025 and 2026, reflecting anticipated challenges in sales performance and competitive pressures [4][13].