Yanghe(002304) 华创证券·2025-04-29 08:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][24]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 28.88 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 also showed a decline in revenue and profit, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [2][4][8]. - The report highlights that the company is undergoing a deep clearing of its financial statements, with a commitment to dividends providing a safety net for investors. The total dividend for 2024 is set at 7 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend yield of 6.5% [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - 2024 Financials: - Total revenue: 28.88 billion yuan, down 12.8% YoY - Net profit: 6.67 billion yuan, down 33.4% YoY - Earnings per share (EPS): 4.43 yuan [4][8]. - 2025 Projections: - Expected total revenue: 23.41 billion yuan, down 18.9% YoY - Expected net profit: 5.59 billion yuan, down 16.3% YoY - Projected EPS: 3.71 yuan [4][8]. - Market Position: - The company is focusing on inventory clearance and maintaining price stability for its main products, particularly in the Jiangsu region. The strategy includes managing quotas and enhancing marketing efforts to support sales [2][8]. - Valuation Metrics: - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 19 times, with a target price of 82 yuan based on a 22 times P/E ratio [4][8]. - Cash Flow and Debt: - The company reported a significant increase in contract liabilities, indicating a focus on managing cash flow amidst declining sales [2][8]. - Market Trends: - The report notes a challenging market environment with a decline in both volume and price for the company's products, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 [2][8]. - Future Outlook: - The company is expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, driven by new product launches and a lower base from the previous year [2][8].