百润股份（002568）：Q1利润亮眼，期待威士忌驱动成长

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 30.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The report highlights strong Q1 profits and anticipates growth driven by whiskey products, despite challenges in the ready-to-drink cocktail segment [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved gross margins, with a focus on expanding its whiskey product line to drive future growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items to be 3.05 billion, 720 million, and 670 million RMB, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 6.6%, 11.2%, and 13.6% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 660 million RMB, with a net profit of 140 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decline of 18.0% in revenue but a slight increase of 0.5% in net profit [1]. - Q1 2025 results show revenue of 740 million RMB, with net profit attributable to the parent at 180 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8.1% in revenue but an increase of 7.0% in net profit [1][2]. Product and Market Analysis - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment faced pressure, with revenues declining by 7.2% to 2.68 billion RMB in 2024, while the edible flavor segment grew by 6.3% to 340 million RMB [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its whiskey offerings, with new products launched in Q1 2025, which are expected to contribute positively to revenue [1][2]. Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 69.7%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower packaging costs and a higher proportion of high-margin flavor business [3]. - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 improved by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to cost benefits and a reduction in sales and management expenses [3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 and 2026 is 0.75 RMB and 0.82 RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 0.95 RMB [4][6]. - The report anticipates a recovery in the ready-to-drink cocktail business driven by consumer demand, while the whiskey segment is expected to provide additional growth opportunities [4].