新宝股份（002705）：海外需求旺盛带动外销增长，Q1利润表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.05 billion yuan, up 7.75% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing strong overseas demand, leading to significant growth in exports, while domestic sales are under pressure due to a sluggish consumer market [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, a decrease of 1.82 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.63%, down 0.51 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, a 6.15% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 268 million yuan, up 11.07% year-on-year [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a 10.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 247 million yuan, a significant increase of 43.02% year-on-year [1]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's domestic sales decreased by 4.42% while international sales increased by 21.68%. In Q4 2024, domestic sales fell by 11.3% and international sales grew by 14.1% [2]. - For Q1 2025, domestic sales declined by 4.94% while international sales rose by 15.77%, indicating a continued trend of strong export growth despite domestic challenges [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 20.91%, down from the previous year, while the net margin was 6.63% [3]. - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 19.38%, a decline of 4.01 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin slightly improved to 7.01% [3]. Expense Management - The company maintained good control over its expense ratios in 2024, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios at 3.6%, 4.94%, 3.94%, and -0.52% respectively [3]. - For Q1 2025, the expense ratios were 3.9% for sales, 5.8% for management, and 3.36% for R&D, indicating a slight increase in management expenses [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see gradual recovery in domestic sales due to a low base, while external orders are anticipated to continue driving overall revenue growth [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.21 billion yuan, 1.37 billion yuan, and 1.51 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 8.74x, 7.68x, and 6.99x [4].