SF Holding(002352) 华泰证券·2025-04-29 08:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 69.85 billion RMB in Q1, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.23 billion RMB, up 16.9% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations due to operational model transformation and network optimization [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from stable profits from express delivery, diversified business growth, and international expansion, leading to a revaluation from an express delivery company to a comprehensive logistics service provider [1][3] Revenue and Volume Growth - The average daily volume of parcels increased by 21.0% year-on-year to 3.56 billion parcels, with total parcel volume growing by 19.7% to 3.54 billion parcels [2] - The average price per parcel decreased by approximately 11.0% year-on-year to 14.55 RMB, continuing the trend of "price for volume" established over the past 24 years [2] Business Segments and Cost Optimization - Revenue from express logistics grew by 7.2% year-on-year, while supply chain and international business revenue increased by 9.9% year-on-year, driven by competitive product offerings and enhanced international network capabilities [2] - The company achieved a gross margin of 13.3%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 8.0% to 9.29 billion RMB [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains net profit forecasts of 11.8 billion RMB, 14.2 billion RMB, and 16.0 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding EBITDA of 34.9 billion RMB, 38.5 billion RMB, and 41.3 billion RMB [3] - The valuation for A-shares is set at 8.0x EV/EBITDA for 2025, above the average of 4.8x for comparable companies, while H-shares are valued at 7.7x EV/EBITDA, also above the average of 5.2x [3]