Shanxi Coking Coal Energy (000983) 开源证券·2025-04-29 08:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance is being dragged down by a decline in both coal volume and price, emphasizing the need to focus on coal mine growth and price elasticity [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of 45.29 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 18.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.11 billion yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, expecting net profits of 2.89 billion yuan, 3.57 billion yuan, and 3.79 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.51, 0.63, and 0.67 yuan [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company experienced a decline in coal production and sales due to safety inspections and temporary shutdowns of certain mines, with total coal sales down 20% year-on-year [4] - The average selling price of the company's coal in 2024 was 1,037 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease of 26.6% year-on-year [4] - The company's coal production cost per ton increased by 9.5% year-on-year to 495 yuan, leading to a decrease in gross profit per ton by 15.9% to 542 yuan [4] Growth Potential and Dividends - The report indicates potential growth in the coal business, with the company winning exploration rights for a new coal mine with a planned capacity of 8 million tons per year [5] - The closure of underperforming power generation units is expected to reduce losses and improve overall company performance [5] - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is noted to be 40.19%, a decrease of 26.88% year-on-year, translating to a current dividend yield of 3.4% based on the closing price on April 28, 2025 [5]