山西焦煤（000983）：力促多渠道降本增效，业绩改善可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to improve its performance through multi-channel cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, despite a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 [1][2] - The company has significant coal resource advantages, with a total coal resource reserve of 6.53 billion tons and additional exploration rights acquired for 0.953 billion tons of coal and 55.61 million tons of bauxite [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.25 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 40.2%, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.4% based on the closing price on April 28 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 45.29 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.108 billion yuan, down 54.1% year-on-year [1][4] - The company’s revenue for Q1 2025 is projected at 9.026 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.46% year-on-year, with a net profit of 681 million yuan, down 28.33% year-on-year [1] - The company’s total coal production for 2024 is expected to be 47.22 million tons, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, while the sales volume of commercial coal is projected to be 25.6 million tons, a decrease of 20% year-on-year [8] - The average selling price of coal in 2024 is expected to be 1,037 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6.0% year-on-year, while the average cost is projected to be 495 yuan per ton, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year [8] Future Earnings Estimates - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18.9X, 15.8X, and 14.7X [3][4]