Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company has successfully advanced its new brand collaborations, with Q1 2025 revenue growth meeting expectations [5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.353 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 762 million RMB, a decrease of 3.25% [7] - The company continues to deepen cooperation with new clients and emerging sports brands, with sales of sports shoes reaching 49 million pairs, up 8.24% year-on-year [7] - The company has a strong dividend policy, distributing 2.3 RMB per share (including tax) for the 2024 fiscal year, with an expected payout ratio of approximately 70% of net profit [7] - The company is expanding its production capacity to meet downstream demand, with two new shoe factories starting operations in Q1 2025, increasing the workforce to 184,000, a year-on-year increase of 17% [7] - The growth in orders is driven by increased consumer demand in the sports industry and deeper collaborations with brands like Adidas [7] - The company is expected to see a rise in average selling price (ASP) due to structural changes in its client base [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 20.114 billion RMB - 2024: 24.006 billion RMB (19.35% YoY growth) - 2025E: 27.664 billion RMB (15.24% YoY growth) - 2026E: 31.734 billion RMB (14.71% YoY growth) - 2027E: 36.258 billion RMB (14.25% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 3.2 billion RMB - 2024: 3.84 billion RMB (20% YoY growth) - 2025E: 4.355 billion RMB (13.4% YoY growth) - 2026E: 4.959 billion RMB (13.87% YoY growth) - 2027E: 5.731 billion RMB (15.58% YoY growth) [6] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) of approximately 21% over the forecast period [6]
华利集团（300979）：新品牌合作进展顺利，25Q1营收增长符合预期