PDH(600048) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-29 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure from settlement results, but there are marginal improvements in sales and investment [6] - The company achieved a total revenue of 311.67 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion yuan, down 58.6% year-on-year [6][7] - The company plans to invest 201 billion yuan in real estate and related industries in 2025, with new construction and completion areas expected to be 8 million square meters and 25.4 million square meters, respectively [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 280.5 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase [5][6] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 14.3% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 2.5% [5][6] - The company reported a cash recovery of 327.7 billion yuan in 2024, with a cash recovery rate exceeding 100% [6] Sales and Investment Performance - In 2024, the company maintained its position as the industry leader with a sales area of 17.97 million square meters, despite a year-on-year decline of 24.7% [6] - The company’s land acquisition amount in 2024 was 68.3 billion yuan, down 58% year-on-year, with a land acquisition area of 3.29 million square meters [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales area of 3.08 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, but the land acquisition amount increased significantly by 260% to 18 billion yuan [6] Financial Health - The company’s debt levels are stable, with a net debt ratio of 63% and an asset-liability ratio of 65% as of Q1 2025 [6] - The comprehensive financing cost has decreased to 3.1%, down 46 basis points year-on-year [6]