CATEC(600879) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-29 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [7]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 revenue decreased to 1.7 billion yuan, down 55.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 30 million yuan, down 79.2% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [1][7]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to delays in product deliveries and changes in the consolidation scope of subsidiaries, but a recovery in revenue is expected as product deliveries resume [7]. - The gross margin improved to 26.61%, up 7.46 percentage points from the previous year, while the net margin decreased to 0.43%, down 3.60 percentage points due to increased expense ratios [7]. - High levels of inventory (21.279 billion yuan) and contract liabilities (1.577 billion yuan) are expected to convert into revenue, supporting future growth [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the aerospace electronics sector, benefiting from increasing demand in the aerospace and unmanned systems markets [7]. - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at 611 million, 772 million, and 1.018 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 45, 36, and 27 [7]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 15.381 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% [3]. - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 611 million yuan, reflecting an 11.5% year-on-year growth [3]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.0% for 2025, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 2.9% in 2025 to 4.5% by 2027 [3].