恒立液压（601100）：下游挖机表现亮眼，新领域扎实推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of 82.00 RMB [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion RMB, up 0.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by the increased market share of excavator hydraulic pump and valve products and the continued growth in non-engineering machinery products [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growth in excavator sales since Q1 2025, with a total of 61,372 excavators sold in Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.8% [3]. - The linear actuators, which are key components for humanoid robots, have entered mass production, although they are not expected to contribute significantly to revenue and profit in the short term [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.422 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.56%, and a net profit of 618 million RMB, up 2.61% year-on-year [1][2]. - The revenue from hydraulic pumps and motors accounted for 38.16% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, and a gross margin of 47.94%, up 9.63 percentage points [2]. Sales and Market Trends - The domestic sales of excavators reached 36,562 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 38.3%, indicating strong demand in sectors such as agriculture and municipal water conservancy [3]. - The company anticipates that the demand for small excavators will continue to support the domestic market, as the sales of second-hand excavators are expected to exceed new machine sales for the first time in 2024 [3]. Future Projections - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.751 billion RMB, 3.227 billion RMB, and 3.772 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting an upward revision due to anticipated growth in excavator sales [5]. - The target price has been adjusted to 82.00 RMB based on a new price-to-earnings ratio of 40x, up from the previous 31x, reflecting the expected growth in downstream demand and the potential of the linear actuator project [5].