SICHUAN HEXIE SHUANGMA CO.(000935) 国金证券·2025-04-29 11:19Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4][13]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 1.075 billion RMB, down 11.87% year-on-year, and net profit at 309 million RMB, down 68.61% year-on-year [2][4]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a recovery in revenue, reaching 325 million RMB, up 52.53% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of Shenzhen Jianyuan and a recovery in cement sales [2][3]. - The private equity business is expected to recover as project exits accelerate, with potential excess performance compensation of 1.023 billion RMB anticipated by the end of 2024 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 330 million RMB and net profit of 65 million RMB, reflecting declines of 20.16% and 79.56% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The decline in 2024 was attributed to capital market fluctuations affecting the fair value of invested projects and a significant drop in sales volume and prices in the building materials sector [2]. Business Segments - Private equity business revenue for 2024 was 452 million RMB, down 2.93% year-on-year, with expectations of declining management fee income as project exits accelerate [3]. - The building materials segment generated 594 million RMB in revenue for 2024, down 21.19% year-on-year, due to weak market demand in real estate and infrastructure [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 650 million RMB, 990 million RMB, and 1.376 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 111%, 52%, and 39% [4]. - A price-to-earnings ratio of 28 times is applied for the year 2025 [4].