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25Q1FOF季报分析:规模增长创2022年以来新高,六只长盈计划产品规模增长195亿元
申万宏源证券·2025-04-29 15:13
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale growth of FOF in Q1 2025 reached a high since 2022, with the new - issue scale rising to a level similar to that in Q1 2022. The number of FOF also increased, and the continuous operation scale turned positive. Bond - type FOF remained popular, and some products had significant net subscriptions. A few top - tier managers saw a substantial increase in scale, narrowing the scale gap among them [1][7]. - The China Merchants TREE Changying Plan offers a one - stop solution and service based on multi - asset allocation. The scale of the six products included in the plan increased by 19.515 billion yuan in Q1, exceeding the scale increase of all FOF in Q1 2025 [1][23]. - Most FOF achieved positive returns in Q1 2025, with a better winning rate than comparable fixed - income + or active equity products. As the position increased, the performance of FOF became more prominent, and large - scale balanced FOF generally performed strongly, often using multi - asset allocation strategies and investing in overseas bond assets [1][32]. - Top - tier managers generally attach importance to multi - asset allocation, with different investment directions. The overall characteristic of FOF in Q1 was the emphasis on mutual recognition funds and passive investment, and there was a preference for Hong Kong stock assets [1][42]. - The scale of personal pension funds increased in Q1 2025, with target - date pension funds being more popular. The scale of fixed - income + FOF and equity - type FOF increased significantly, and the 2050 series products were also favored [1]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Scale Dimension: Scale Growth Reached a New High Since 2022 - FOF Classification: FOF funds are classified into four categories: bond - type FOF (X < 10%), fixed - income + FOF (10% <= X < 30%), balanced FOF (30% <= X < 60%), and equity - type FOF (X >= 60%) based on the post - penetration equity position. For pension target funds, classification is based on the holding period [5][7]. - Scale Review: In Q1 2025, the number of FOF increased to 511, 12 more than in Q4 2024. The new - issue scale was 14.151 billion yuan, close to that in Q1 2022. The continuous operation scale increased by 3.744 billion yuan, and the total scale increase in Q1 was 17.895 billion yuan, the highest since 2022 [7]. - New - Issue Representatives: Among fund companies, Fullgoal Fund's new - issue product, Fullgoal Yinghe Zhenxuan 3 - month Holding Period, had a new - issue scale of over 6 billion yuan. Among custodian banks, China Merchants Bank had a new - issue scale of over 8 billion yuan [9]. - Product New - Issue and Continuous Operation: Bond - type FOF remained popular, and some products had net subscriptions of over 6 billion yuan. New - issue products were mostly bond - type or fixed - income + type FOF [11]. - Fund Company Dimension: A few top - tier managers saw a significant increase in scale, mainly due to prominent new - issue scales or net subscriptions of their products. The scale gap among top - tier managers narrowed significantly [15]. 3.2 China Merchants TREE Changying Plan: Providing a One - Stop Solution and Service Based on Multi - Asset Allocation - Plan Introduction: It is a one - stop asset allocation solution jointly created by China Merchants Bank's wealth management team and public fund management institutions, featuring "good strategies, good products, and good services". It has clear return and drawdown targets for selected products [19][21]. - Product Situation: There are currently six products included in the four - tier plan. All products emphasize multi - asset allocation, and their scale increased by 19.515 billion yuan in Q1, exceeding the scale increase of all FOF in Q1 2025 [23]. - Heavy - Positioned Funds: The heavy - positioned funds of these products reflect their investment strategies. For example, Xingzheng Global Yingxin Multi - asset Allocation 3 - month Holding Period holds overseas funds for global allocation [27]. 3.3 Performance Dimension: High - performing FOF Generally Reflect the Characteristics of Multi - Asset Allocation - Market Environment: In Q1 2025, both the bond and equity markets fluctuated greatly, with the ChinaBond Composite Wealth Index falling by - 0.61% and the Wind All - A Index rising by 1.90% [32]. - FOF Performance: As the position increased, the performance of FOF became more prominent. The median return of equity - type FOF reached 2.47%, exceeding the performance of the Wind All - A Index. The winning rate of FOF was generally better than that of comparable indexes [32]. - High - performing FOF: Large - scale balanced FOF generally performed strongly, often using multi - asset allocation strategies and investing in overseas bond assets. High - performing bond - type and fixed - income + FOF generally held overseas bond assets, while high - performing equity - type FOF generally held ETFs [36][39]. 3.4 Investment Characteristics: Top - tier Managers Generally Attach Importance to Multi - Asset Allocation and Prefer Hong Kong Stock Funds and Mutual Recognition Funds - Top - tier Managers' Allocation: Top - tier managers generally attach importance to multi - asset allocation, with different investment directions. They pay attention to the allocation of QDII, mutual recognition, and commodity assets, among others [42]. - Market - wide Characteristics: In Q1 2025, FOF generally emphasized mutual recognition funds and passive investment. The average heavy - position ratio of mutual recognition funds increased significantly, and there was also a preference for commodity funds [46]. - Preference for Hong Kong Stock Assets: The heavy - position fund allocation in Q1 showed a preference for Hong Kong stock assets. Some mutual recognition funds had a heavy - position amount exceeding that of top - tier active equity funds [47]. 3.5 Personal Pension Funds: The Total Y - Share Amounted to 1.0204 Billion Yuan - Scale Change: In Q1 2025, the scale of personal pension funds was 1.0244 billion yuan, an increase of 137.7 million yuan compared to Q4 2024, maintaining a relatively high growth rate [1]. - Popular Products: Target - date pension funds were more popular, with a current scale of 607.6 million yuan. The scale of fixed - income + FOF and equity - type FOF increased significantly, and the 2050 series products were also favored [1].