SACO(002025) 长江证券·2025-04-29 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The report indicates a significant recovery in defense demand expected in Q1, with improvements in revenue and profitability anticipated in Q2. High inventory levels ensure short-term delivery capabilities, while substantial R&D investments solidify long-term growth certainty [2][12]. - The company reported Q1 revenue of 1.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 47 million yuan, down 79.35% year-on-year [6][12]. Summary by Sections Demand and Revenue - A substantial recovery in defense demand is expected in Q1, which will reflect in the financial statements and revenue improvements in Q2. The company experienced a significant increase in product orders in Q1, although production and delivery confirmations require time [12]. Financial Performance - The revenue structure showed a decline in high-margin defense product revenue, coupled with rising costs due to increased prices of raw materials, leading to a gross margin decrease of 8.87 percentage points to 31.43%. R&D expenses grew by 33.15%, indicating a strong commitment to technological advancements [12]. Inventory and R&D - The company maintains a high inventory balance of 1.771 billion yuan, exceeding the overall revenue level for Q1, which supports strong short-term delivery certainty. Non-current assets increased by 77.69%, primarily due to higher prepayments for equipment purchases, suggesting potential capacity enhancements [12]. Market Development - The company is focused on integrating market development with product development, targeting large markets and key users. It aims to enhance technological research capabilities and accelerate core technology breakthroughs to support strategic emerging industries [12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 894 million, 1.153 billion, and 1.402 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 158%, 29%, and 22%, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 27, 21, and 17 times [12].