贵州茅台（600519）：抢抓开门红，同心谋转型

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [1][2] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% for the full year 2025, with Q1 performance exceeding this target, indicating a strong foundation for the year ahead [2] - The gross profit margin in Q1 2025 decreased by 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to faster growth in series liquor, which slightly increased its revenue share [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) is projected to grow from 150,560 in 2023 to 223,969 in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18.0% in 2023, decreasing to 8.5% by 2027 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 74,734 million yuan in 2023 to 112,120 million yuan in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.2% in 2023, tapering to 8.9% by 2027 [3] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 59.49 yuan in 2023 to 89.25 yuan in 2027 [3] Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, Moutai liquor revenue reached 43.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, while series liquor revenue was 7.022 billion yuan, up 18.3% year-on-year [2] - The price of the 500ml Moutai remained stable during the Spring Festival, showcasing the company's strong channel management capabilities [2] - The company is optimizing its product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs, including increasing the supply of 1000ml Moutai and developing new products in the Moutai 1935 line [2] Channel Strategy - Direct sales revenue in Q1 2025 was 23.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.19%, while distributor revenue was 27.36 billion yuan, up 3.94% [2] - The company is exploring new retail channels by recruiting online operators for themed terminal stores, aiming to enhance consumer purchasing experiences [2]