恒立液压：业绩符合预期，性驱动器打开成长潜力-20250430

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 4.0 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 35, 30, and 25 times [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 9.39 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.51 billion RMB, up 0.40% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB, reflecting a 2.5% increase year-on-year, while net profit was 618 million RMB, up 2.66% year-on-year [2]. - The recovery in the excavator market, along with the expansion into non-excavator markets, has driven stable revenue growth. The domestic engineering machinery industry showed signs of recovery in 2024, with excavator sales increasing by 3.13% year-on-year. The company's revenue growth was supported by increased market share in hydraulic pump and valve products, diversification into non-engineering machinery products, and successful international market expansion [2][3]. - The company's overall profitability remains stable, with a gross margin of 42.83% in 2024, up 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin was approximately 26.76%, down 1.1 percentage points due to increased sales and management expenses [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, a 4.51% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.51 billion RMB, a 0.40% increase year-on-year. Q4 2024 revenue was 2.45 billion RMB, with a net profit of 717 million RMB [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue was 2.42 billion RMB, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, and net profit was 618 million RMB, a 2.66% increase year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - The excavator market's recovery and the expansion into non-excavator markets have jointly driven stable revenue growth. In 2024, the company saw a historical high in revenue, attributed to increased market share in hydraulic pump and valve products, ongoing diversification, and successful international market expansion [2][3]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 included hydraulic cylinders (4.76 billion RMB), hydraulic pumps and valves (3.58 billion RMB), motors (296 million RMB), hydraulic systems (684 million RMB), and parts and castings (1.68 billion RMB), with respective year-on-year growth rates of +1.44%, +9.63%, +1.64%, +1.76% [2]. Profitability - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.83%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin was approximately 26.76%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points due to increased sales and management expenses [2]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 39.4%, a decrease of 0.69 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 25.55%, remaining stable year-on-year [2].